AGP Executive Report

Regulatory Shock (Nigeria): Nigeria’s central bank revoked licences of 46 microfinance banks, with the NDIC moving to take over assets and begin payouts to depositors while warning the public against illegal transactions. Central Banking & AI (Global): At the ECB Forum in Sintra, Fed chair Kevin Warsh avoided rate guidance but stressed inflation is still “too high,” while central bankers broadly flagged AI as a potential financial-stability disruptor. FX Watch (Japan/US): USD/JPY surged toward 163 as yen weakness lifted intervention expectations, raising the risk of sharp volatility if Japan steps in. Market Rotation (US): Wall Street opened Q3 with a split tape—Dow near records while Nasdaq lagged—yet broader S&P 500 participation suggested rotation rather than a broad selloff. Banking Tech & Supervision (Sri Lanka): Sri Lanka’s cabinet approved a new core banking system for Bank of Ceylon and a digital platform to modernise banking supervision, with ADB technical assistance. Wealth & Payments (Singapore): SGX will expand omnibus broker custody accounts from 14 July and cut board lot sizes to boost retail access to bank shares. Kenya Banking Snapshot: SASRA data shows 89% of SACCO members hold Sh50,000 or less in savings, while Kenya’s Q1 fuel consumption rose 5.4% as the economy pushed through pressures.

ATM Access & Retail Banking Tech: NCR Atleos extended its Shell UK forecourt ATM deal, keeping 408 free-to-use ATMs running with managed monitoring, maintenance and cash services. Rates & Housing Demand: New Zealand banks cut fixed rates ahead of the OCR review, while the US Mortgage Bankers Association reported a small rise in home-purchase applications as mortgage rates eased slightly. AI in Payments & Banking: Form3 highlighted how cloud, agentic AI and stablecoins are reshaping payments, and Unzer named Isabelle Bénard as Chief Product & AI Officer to push AI across onboarding, fraud prevention and compliance. Central Banking & Inflation: Fed nominee Kevin Warsh reiterated the 2% inflation goal and central bank independence at the ECB forum, as AI risks and opportunities dominated central bank discussions. Nigeria Microfinance Crackdown: Nigeria’s CBN revoked licenses of 46 microfinance banks for regulatory breaches, including capital shortfalls and inactivity. UK Banking Brand Shake-up: Lloyds will rebrand Halifax accounts to Lloyds without customer action, as the Halifax name is phased out. Cash Hoarding Pressure (Russia): Reports say Russians have drained about $24.5bn from the banking system in five months, with banks in “friendly” EAEU states adding ruble cash fees.

Stablecoin Push: Visa, Stripe and BlackRock are among 140 firms backing Open USD, a new “open” stablecoin built for business governance and low-cost minting/redemption. Bank M&A: Kotak Mahindra Bank agreed to buy Deutsche Bank’s India retail, private banking and wealth unit, adding about ₹29,000 crore in loans and ₹16,000 crore in deposits, with deal close targeted for September next year. Stress Tests & Credit Quality: India’s RBI said banks cleared its stress test, but warned NPAs could tick up in tougher scenarios; core capital buffers remain above minimums even under adverse shocks. Greek Loan Rules: Moody’s says Greek banks can absorb Katseli-law loan cost changes thanks to capital buffers and improved profitability, while flagging risks to cash flows and Hercules securitisations. Crypto Regulation & Payments: Central banks plan to cut dollar holdings and buy gold, while regulators and payment giants keep pushing new digital-money rules and initiatives. Fraud & Enforcement: Kashmir’s Crime Branch filed a chargesheet over alleged unauthorised Kisan Credit Card limit manipulation and banking-credential misuse causing over Rs 1.04 crore loss. Islamic Finance Training: CIBAFI launched the Cibafi Academy to expand global capacity building and certifications for Islamic finance professionals.

Banking Compliance & Governance: Iraq’s Region Trade Bank (RTB) says it has formed the country’s first board built around international leaders in financial integrity, sanctions policy, payments and banking supervision, signaling a push for top-tier compliance. Regulatory & Risk Outlook (India): The RBI’s Financial Stability Report projects India’s gross bad loans (GNPA) edging up to 1.9% by March 2028, while stressing banks remain resilient on capital, liquidity and profitability. Banking Operations & Customer Impact (UK): Lloyds Banking Group will close its Braintree branch on Oct 29, part of a wider Essex/UK branch shutdown plan as customers shift to digital and phone banking. M&A in Banking (India): Kotak Mahindra Bank agreed to buy Deutsche Bank’s India retail, private banking and wealth management business for Rs 281.7 crore, with about 1,000 employees expected to transfer. Payments & Digital Finance: Arab Bank Switzerland opened ABS (Middle East) Limited in Dubai’s DIFC to expand Middle East wealth and cross-border services. Insurance & Consumer Finance: Missouri insurers have paid more than $2.9B in claims after the 2025 severe weather season, with residential property the biggest share. Stablecoins & Enterprise Payments: Open USD (OUSD) is launching on Solana with 140+ partners including Visa, Mastercard and Stripe, using consortium governance and zero-fee minting/redemption. Cybersecurity: Four largest Iranian banks are still facing a third week of outages blamed on cybersecurity failures.

Central Bank Oversight Under Fire: Sri Lanka’s COPF member Ravi Karunanayake urged lawmakers to scrutinize the Central Bank Supervision Unit and Financial Investigation Unit after alleged billion-dollar illegal transfers, calling on 13 commercial banks to explain internal control failures and suspicious bank-manager involvement. Fed Due Process Clash: The US Supreme Court blocked President Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook via a social media post, ruling Trump didn’t meet due process requirements while her “for cause” case proceeds. Cyber & Data Breach Fallout: Australia’s AFP says an EY graduate on secondment at Commonwealth Bank allegedly accessed the PM’s bank account details; the firm sacked the employee and charges were filed. Payments Modernisation: Singapore’s MAS and ABS will study PayNow Generation 2 upgrades, including QR interoperability with NETS QR and smoother online checkout via deep-linking. Banking Sector Leadership Shake-up: India’s private banking space faces CFO exits and uncertainty amid tighter regulation, with Axis CFO Puneet Sharma moving to HDFC Bank. Deal Watch: Adani Ports said MSC will buy a 49% stake in Vizhinjam port for $1.4bn, aiming to boost volumes and ramp-up.

Mortgage Pressure & Housing Rates: A “Warsh effect” warning says the new Fed chair could keep US mortgage rates elevated and volatile, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.49% in the week to June 25. Central Bank Lending Rules: Bangladesh Bank capped the loan–deposit interest spread at 4% to curb abnormal borrowing costs, while Bulgaria’s household deposits climbed 19.3% y/y to €56.3bn by end-May. Digital Payments Push: Philippines’ BPI will drop InstaPay and PESONet fees from July 1, aiming to boost cashless transfers; the UK also faces a broader push for QR-based payments. Banking Infrastructure & Finance Hubs: Central Bank of India inaugurated its IFSC Banking Unit at GIFT City to serve foreign-currency funding and trade finance needs. Banking Sector Deals & Tech: JPMorgan expanded community banking and education, while MiCA’s deadline is pressuring Europe’s unlicensed crypto firms; Chainalysis outlined limits and standards for blockchain tracing. Market Backdrop: UK stocks slipped as Middle East uncertainty lingered, with oil prices supported by Strait of Hormuz developments.

AI & Rates Watch: The Fed is signaling it won’t lean on hoped-for AI productivity gains yet, with inflation still driving a tougher rate stance and other central banks growing more cautious. Payments & Consumer Protection: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas updated its electronic payments framework to push for lower, more transparent digital fees and requires cost analysis for oversight. Banking Competition & Housing: New Zealand’s move toward mandatory home warranties and proportionate liability could reshape insurer and bank-linked risk pricing, while NZ mortgage market share remains fiercely contested week to week. Used-Car Lending: OLX India teamed with IDFC FIRST Bank to launch used-car loans for digital-first buyers and sellers, aiming to convert financing intent into completed purchases. Banking Sector M&A/Restructuring: PFC and REC boards approved the merger scheme, creating a large financing entity with an 11 lakh crore loan book. Corporate Banking Tech: Hexaware was named an Anthropic authorized reseller for Amazon Bedrock, expanding enterprise AI offerings. Market Risk Signals: BIS warned that retail-driven market corrections could amplify financial instability, and global brokerages cut India IT targets amid AI-led valuation pressure.

ESG Regulation Push: Ghana is being cited as West Africa’s ESG front-runner after the Bank of Ghana’s Sustainable Banking Principles (from 2020) drove banks to embed environmental and social risk into lending and operations. Crypto Market Structure: In the U.S., the CLARITY Act’s odds for passing in 2026 fell to about 42%, clouding XRP’s main ETF-related catalyst as lawmakers debate digital-commodity rules. Banking Cybersecurity: Nigeria’s ngCERT warned banks to harden ATM and card defenses after an attack tied to UBA’s Senegal heist reportedly enabled $2m+ withdrawals via compromised authorization infrastructure. Rates Watch: Nepal’s average commercial bank base rate slipped below 5% (to 4.97%), reflecting deposit growth outpacing credit demand. Digital Identity: UK Finance says major banks completed proof-of-concept testing for app-based verification of name, age, or address, aiming to beat deepfake-driven remote checks. Banking Operations: Sierra Leone Commercial Bank reassured customers after a temporary service disruption, saying it was a technical glitch with cash and liquidity unaffected. Regulatory Training: Bangladesh’s BSEC wrapped a four-day training for merchant banks and portfolio managers on capital market laws and rules. Corporate/Branding: Revolut launched a new UK campaign featuring Erling Haaland as it builds its brand post-licence.

NRB Pressure on Non-Banking Assets: Nepal bankers want the central bank to let banks and financial institutions earn income by leasing or renting non-banking assets they can’t sell after loan defaults, citing a jump in such assets to Rs 45.99bn and frustration with tight loan-loss provisioning rules. Consumer Banking Court Win: Kerala High Court ordered a bank to repay a matured Rs 5 lakh FD with 12% interest plus Rs 10,000 compensation after “technical issues” delayed payment. Digital Fraud Rules (RBI): India’s RBI compensation framework for digital fraud will require victims to report within five calendar days to both their bank and the National Cyber Crime Helpline, or they may lose eligibility. Cash Access in Singapore: Banks agreed to place an ATM, cashpoint or branch within 500m of every HDB block by end-2027, with an interim push by end-2026 to support seniors during the shift to digital payments. Crypto Scam Crackdown: San Antonio approved mandatory bilingual fraud warning signs at crypto kiosks, targeting a pattern of phone scams that push victims to deposit cash into Bitcoin ATMs. Fed Leadership & Crypto: Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair start is framed as a “regime change,” with emphasis on inflation targeting, less forward guidance, and balance-sheet shrinkage—while his personal crypto exposure keeps markets watching. Banking Product/Tech Updates: FCMB upgraded its mobile app with rewards, mutual funds, virtual cards and in-app support, while First City Monument Bank also streamlined account upgrades.

Cyber & Consumer Safety: Affin Bank says rural financial literacy and cybersecurity awareness must be strengthened as scams and cybercrime rise, urging grassroots education and partner-led outreach. Data Breach Update: AYA Bank confirmed limited exposure from an old application portal, stressing core banking and customer financial data were not affected. Banking Sector Moves: Standard Chartered is reportedly weighing a sale or restructuring of its Ghana retail operations, a potential shake-up for local competition. Credit to MSMEs: Kenya’s President William Ruto challenged banks to lend more to micro, small and medium enterprises, citing a KSh3 trillion financing gap despite KSh1 trillion already extended. Bancassurance Push: Sidian Bank won three Think Business Insurance Awards, highlighting growing bancassurance distribution via bank branches and digital channels. Fraud Crackdown: Delhi Police arrested a man accused of ₹18 crore bank fraud using forged property documents and impersonation after nearly nine years on the run. Crypto Meets Banking Rules: Meta is exploring prediction-market partnerships (Polymarket/Kalshi) while the Travel Rule continues to reshape crypto compliance by requiring sender/recipient data sharing above thresholds.

AI Export Controls: The U.S. Commerce Department partially reversed its export ban on Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5, letting select U.S. customers access again, while Fable 5 remains offline—raising competitive pressure as China’s GLM 5.2 expands. Central Banking & FX: Southeast Asian central banks are expected to stay cautious as a stronger U.S. dollar and country-specific risks keep pressure on currencies, even as oil price relief helps. Crypto Refunds & Security: SecondFi took a final balance snapshot to start refunds after a June 21–23 Cardano wallet exploit, urging users to register claims and avoid restoring compromised phrases. Regulation & Retirement Crypto: U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters pushed the Labor Department to withdraw a proposal that would allow 401(k) plans to add crypto and other alternative assets. Banking Operations: RBI says banks are closed in India on Saturday, June 27 (fourth Saturday), with online services typically still running. EU Crypto Access: Binance will suspend most services for EU users from July 1 under MiCA after failing to secure authorization by the June 30 deadline. Banking Compliance in India: RBI lifted rate caps on select NRI deposits (FCNR(B) and NRE), aiming to attract more dollar inflows. Food & Community Impact: Grocery Outlet’s Independence from Hunger campaign runs through July 31, supporting Bay Area food banks amid rising food insecurity.

Regulation & Compliance: Maharashtra’s FDA issued stop-work orders to two blood banks (Sir JJ Mahanagar Blood Bank and Maya Blood Center) after joint inspections with CDSCO found serious Drugs and Cosmetics Act violations. Central Banking & Liquidity: Russia’s central bank said no extra steps are needed despite higher cash withdrawals, citing sufficient liquidity support for banks as cash outside the system rises. Banking & Remittances: Morocco is stepping up talks with EU countries to protect Moroccan banks’ EU operations and keep diaspora remittances flowing amid new EU oversight rules. Consumer Finance & Fraud Risk: Cambodia’s crackdown on online scams is exposing weak SIM registration and banking verification checks, with cases involving identity misuse and fraud networks. Policy & Savings: UK plans to tax cash interest inside Stocks and Shares ISAs at 22% are drawing backlash from banks and consumer groups, who call it a “stealth tax.” Crypto & Market Stress: Bitcoin slipped below $59,000 after May PCE inflation pressure, while Binance told EU users it will suspend services after failing to secure a MiCA license by July 1. Aviation Safety: UK aviation authorities warned passengers not to pack power banks in hold luggage due to lithium battery fire risk. Corporate Banking News: Equity Group Holdings’ shareholders approved a record KShs 21.7bn dividend and backed new insurance subsidiaries in Kenya and the DRC.

RBI AI Overhaul: India’s central bank has proposed a “kill switch” and stronger model-risk rules for banks and NBFCs, including human oversight, bias checks, independent reviews, and record-keeping for at least 10 years, with feedback due by 24 July. Mortgage & Rates Watch: South Korea’s Bank of Korea data shows household mortgage rates ticked up in May as market interest rose, with new household loan rates at 4.46%. Digital Payments Momentum (Pakistan): Pakistan’s SBP reports 3.7bn retail payments in Jan–Mar 2026 worth PKR 168.8trn, with digital channels driving 92% of volumes. Terror-Finance Crackdown (Nigeria): Nigeria’s CBN ordered banks and payment firms to freeze accounts and assets tied to six sanctioned individuals and four BDC operators under terrorism financing designations. AI IPO Timing (OpenAI): A New York Times report says OpenAI is leaning to delay its IPO until 2027 amid tech-stock volatility. Banking Access for Seniors (Singapore): DBS, OCBC, UOB and NETS plan cash access within 500m of every HDB block by end-2027. Bank Holiday Disruption (India): Muharram closures mean many Indian banks shut on June 26, followed by the weekend.

Leadership Shuffle at JPMorgan: Marianne Lake will retire as Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh move up as co-presidents, with Petno set to lead commercial & investment banking and Rohrbaugh taking consumer & community banking. Sanctions Compliance in Nigeria: The CBN ordered banks to freeze accounts and assets tied to six terrorism-financing individuals and four bureaux de change, with 48-hour compliance reporting and suspicious transaction filings. AI Governance Pressure on Banks: India’s RBI is pushing an AI “kill switch” and human oversight for model-driven decisions, alongside draft AI safety and accountability rules. Payments Disruption Risk: TIS warns ISO 20022 enforcement is now spilling into corporate payments, with non-compliant cross-border transfers facing rejection and more manual work. Crypto Exchange Deal: SBI Holdings agreed to buy Bitbank for about $289m, pending Japan’s Fair Trade Commission clearance. Retail Gold Clampdown: China’s banks and regulators tightened retail gold trading access and flows, including shutting private investor access to the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Consumer Demand Soft Spots: Germany’s consumer climate is stabilising but still low, while the UK CBI reports weak retail sales volumes and cautious outlook. Digital Banking Reliability: Reports say online banking services remain disrupted despite official claims of fixes after a cyberattack. Local Banking Appointments: Farmers Bank & Trust named Chad Rawls as chief banking officer, while Togo’s BIA-Togo and Orabank Togo highlighted new/ongoing CEO leadership.

Fed Stress Test Watch: The US Federal Reserve said 32 large banks can withstand a severe recession, with aggregate capital shrinking just 1.6% despite $708bn in hypothetical loan losses—clearing the way for dividend and buyback plans. RBI AI Rules: India’s central bank moved to tighten AI governance for banks, proposing safety and accountability requirements including human oversight and model risk controls. RBI NBFC Listing Threshold: The RBI finalised rules for “upper-layer” NBFCs, pushing firms above ₹1 lakh crore into public listing requirements, a move that could reshape ownership plans for major groups. Crypto Market Pressure: Bitcoin slid toward $60k–$62k as ETF outflows and risk-off flows persisted, while analysts flagged potential support levels and warned of further downside before a bottom. Banking Tech & Cyber: Westpac named a new technology leader to drive core modernisation and cyber resilience, while banks globally are stepping up AI and fraud defenses. SMBC Climate Finance: SMBC invested in Deep Sky to support Japan’s carbon dioxide removal and direct air capture credit development. NZ Banking Policy: New Zealand’s Green Party proposed a bank levy that could raise costs for big banks and potentially be passed to customers. Nepal Loan Relief: Nepal Rastra Bank allowed interest capitalization for long-term projects, easing pressure on investors during extended construction phases.

RBI Fraud Rules: The Reserve Bank of India has tightened protections for digital fraud victims, offering 85% reimbursement (up to ₹25,000) for losses up to ₹50,000 from Jan 1, 2027, with banks required to reverse credit-card scam amounts within five days, send instant SMS alerts for transactions above ₹500, and resolve domestic fraud complaints in 45 days (cross-border in 60). RBI AI Governance: RBI also issued draft model-risk guidance for banks and NBFCs, pushing board-approved AI/ML risk frameworks, independent checks, human oversight for key decisions, stronger cybersecurity, and “kill-switch” style controls for high-risk models. Market & Commodities: Gold slid under $4,000/oz, ending a three-year rally after a sharp drop, while crypto ETFs saw nearly $200m in combined BTC/ETH outflows amid cautious sentiment. Banking Sector Moves: Bangladesh Bank reported Tk 75,903 crore in emergency liquidity support to banks as of June 6, and Kyrgyzstan’s state banks cut ties with 130+ companies over sanctions and suspicious-transaction risks. Industry & Deals: StoneX launched a Financial Institutions Group research practice for regional and community banks, and Revolut moved closer to NZ full banking with a business platform launch alongside its licence application.